Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Zegras 42.6% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 78.1%
Defensive zone
Zegras 55.6%
Neutral zone
Zegras 63.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Hayton
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayton
Zegras
Last 6: Hayton 2-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Hayton
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
41.1% (559)
+9.9%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
50.0% (12)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
50.0% (2)
-5.0%
On even strength, Hayton has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Hayton
Zegras
Home
54.6% (639)
45.7% (247)
Away
47.2% (591)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Hayton
Zegras
P1
50.9%
45.5%
P2
52.7%
36.8%
P3
49.9%
41.1%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:55 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |