Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kindel on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kindel wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kindel 45.3% vs Nelson 48.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Kindel
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kindel
Nelson
Last 6: Kindel 3-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Kindel
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kindel
1
0
Kindel
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kindel
2
1
Kindel
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kindel
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (487)
47.9% (9,695)
-4.8%
Power Play
55.3% (38)
54.5% (1,132)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
43.8% (783)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Kindel has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Kindel is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (367).
Kindel shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Home / Away
Kindel
Nelson
Home
46.1% (267)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
42.9% (273)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Kindel
Nelson
P1
41.5%
48.7%
P2
45.8%
48.5%
P3
42.6%
47.7%
OT
91.7%
45.6%
Final 5 min
39.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kindel
36.0%▼
38.5%
44.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Ben Kindel |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Ben Kindel |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 15:50 | Neutral | Ben Kindel |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |