Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Coleman wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.3% vs Stepan 46.6% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Coleman 61.9%
Defensive zone
Coleman 82.6%
Neutral zone
Coleman 71.1%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 66.6%
66.6%
33.4%
Coleman
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Coleman
Stepan
Last 10: Coleman 2-8 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
11
Coleman
Stepan
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
3
0
Coleman
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coleman
1
0
Coleman
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (1,060)
46.5% (10,204)
-1.2%
Power Play
34.1% (41)
48.8% (1,593)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (321)
44.2% (1,368)
-8.4%
On power play, Stepan has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Coleman is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Coleman shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Coleman
Stepan
Home
44.5% (663)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
41.4% (759)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Coleman
Stepan
P1
42.4%
47.5%
P2
44.6%
45.6%
P3
41.7%
46.8%
OT
0.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
42.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
42.8%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:38 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 06:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |