Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Coleman wins 28.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 39.0% vs Stepan 47.7% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coleman 66.2%
Defensive zone
Coleman 72.3%
Neutral zone
Coleman 73.1%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Coleman
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Coleman
Stepan
Last 5: Coleman 1-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
4
Coleman
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
1
0
Coleman
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
36.5% (85)
47.3% (877)
-10.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
54.4% (103)
-25.8%
Penalty Kill
24.6% (57)
45.2% (217)
-20.6%
On power play, Stepan has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Coleman is 28.9% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Coleman shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Coleman
Stepan
Home
37.3% (75)
50.4% (560)
Away
25.7% (74)
45.1% (637)
By Period
Coleman
Stepan
P1
32.0%
47.4%
P2
30.0%
47.0%
P3
33.3%
48.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
36.0%▼
45.5%
31.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:38 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 06:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |