Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Coleman wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.2%
Defensive zone
Coleman 65.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Coleman
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Coleman
Pavelski
Last 10: Coleman 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
5
Coleman
Pavelski
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
4
3
Coleman
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coleman
2
0
Coleman
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (1,060)
53.6% (8,791)
-8.3%
Power Play
34.1% (41)
58.2% (2,122)
-24.1%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (321)
50.9% (1,138)
-15.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Coleman is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Coleman shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Coleman
Pavelski
Home
44.5% (663)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
41.4% (759)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Coleman
Pavelski
P1
42.4%
53.5%
P2
44.6%
55.2%
P3
41.7%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
42.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
42.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 3 | 14:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2018 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2017 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 20, 2017 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 20, 2017 | 1 | 14:11 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |