Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Stepan 46.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 65.3%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 63.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Lizotte
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Lizotte
Stepan
Last 8: Lizotte 4-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
3
1
Lizotte
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Lizotte
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
46.5% (10,204)
+5.1%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
48.8% (1,593)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
44.2% (1,368)
-1.9%
On even strength, Lizotte has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Lizotte is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,213).
Lizotte shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Stepan
Home
49.5% (1,840)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Lizotte
Stepan
P1
48.0%
47.5%
P2
52.3%
45.6%
P3
50.5%
46.8%
OT
75.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
50.2%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2023 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 2 | 11:44 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 2 | 02:19 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 15:29 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 18, 2019 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 18, 2019 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |