Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Tavares 57.7% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.6%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 78.7%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 61.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Lizotte
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Lizotte
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Lizotte
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
57.5% (914)
-5.0%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
60.5% (309)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
59.1% (22)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Tavares
Home
51.4% (383)
61.0% (661)
Away
50.9% (424)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Lizotte
Tavares
P1
48.8%
58.6%
P2
51.0%
57.8%
P3
53.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
48.3%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |