Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Wheeler wins 40.3% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 46.1% vs Spezza 54.7% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wheeler 74.0%
Defensive zone
Wheeler 81.2%
Neutral zone
Wheeler 74.7%
Result
Blake Wheeler favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Wheeler
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Wheeler
Spezza
Last 9: Wheeler 1-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
6
Wheeler
Spezza
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Wheeler
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (1,369)
54.4% (7,990)
-7.7%
Power Play
46.9% (207)
56.8% (1,726)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (129)
52.7% (643)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Wheeler is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Wheeler shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Spezza
Home
47.5% (883)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
44.2% (822)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Wheeler
Spezza
P1
45.0%
55.7%
P2
48.2%
54.4%
P3
44.5%
54.1%
OT
37.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
42.4%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
45.9%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 12:33 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 05:15 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 18:49 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 18, 2018 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |