Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 45.3% vs Lafferty 47.6% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 60.3%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 65.0%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 52.0%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Groulx
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Groulx
Lafferty
Last 5: Groulx 3-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Groulx
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
2
1
Groulx
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (371)
48.0% (1,413)
-1.9%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
45.7% (46)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
36.9% (84)
43.5% (184)
-6.6%
On power play, Lafferty has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Groulx is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (164).
Groulx shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
Groulx
Lafferty
Home
49.8% (241)
47.3% (833)
Away
38.3% (222)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Groulx
Lafferty
P1
45.3%
49.4%
P2
44.8%
43.1%
P3
42.9%
49.8%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
48.0%▲
42.5%
44.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |