Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Mercer 41.8% (+17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 78.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 72.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 78.3%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 75.4%
24.6%
75.4%
Horvat
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Horvat
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Horvat
Mercer
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Horvat
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
38.8% (263)
+16.5%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
35.3% (17)
+26.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
50.0% (10)
-3.5%
On power play, Horvat has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Horvat is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (413).
Horvat shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Horvat
Mercer
Home
58.2% (469)
34.7% (144)
Away
54.0% (544)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Horvat
Mercer
P1
59.6%
32.7%
P2
53.1%
42.7%
P3
55.5%
42.2%
Final 5 min
59.6%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:11 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |