Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 50.8% vs Pavelski 54.5% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 20-6 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 74.0%
Defensive zone
Horvat 94.1%
Neutral zone
Horvat 79.8%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Horvat
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
20
(26 meetings)
6
20
Horvat
Pavelski
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
15
Horvat
Pavelski
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
3
Horvat
Pavelski
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Horvat
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,079)
53.6% (657)
-0.9%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
60.2% (221)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (279)
51.7% (60)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Horvat is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (561).
Horvat shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
Horvat
Pavelski
Home
53.1% (723)
57.4% (470)
Away
48.8% (770)
52.6% (468)
By Period
Horvat
Pavelski
P1
51.1%
53.4%
P2
52.6%
55.6%
P3
48.8%
55.5%
OT
57.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
50.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 02:43 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 1 | 02:39 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |