Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.2%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 51 meetings). Horvat wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 62-48 in 110 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.9%
Defensive zone
Horvat 51.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Horvat
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
62
(110 meetings)
48
62
Horvat
Pavelski
Last 10: Horvat 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
19
32
Horvat
Pavelski
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
20
18
Horvat
Pavelski
38 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
12
Horvat
Pavelski
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,606)
53.6% (8,791)
+0.3%
Power Play
61.0% (2,699)
58.2% (2,122)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,494)
50.9% (1,138)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Horvat is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,086).
Horvat shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Horvat
Pavelski
Home
56.0% (8,355)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Horvat
Pavelski
P1
54.1%
53.5%
P2
54.4%
55.2%
P3
55.0%
53.9%
OT
49.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 07:07 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 18:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 04:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |