Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.3% vs Stepan 54.8% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 55.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 62.0%
Neutral zone
Jenner 55.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Jenner
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Jenner
Stepan
Last 6: Jenner 4-2 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
0
Jenner
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Jenner
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (851)
54.5% (374)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.0% (202)
0.0% (2)
+54.0%
Penalty Kill
50.3% (145)
64.7% (68)
-14.4%
On power play, Jenner has a +54.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Jenner is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Jenner shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Jenner
Stepan
Home
53.2% (609)
54.5% (222)
Away
54.0% (589)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Jenner
Stepan
P1
49.7%
57.5%
P2
53.6%
54.7%
P3
56.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.6%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 12:09 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 07:05 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 16:30 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |