Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 50.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 50.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 54.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Jenner
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Jenner
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Jenner
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (227)
45.4% (712)
+4.4%
Power Play
52.2% (23)
42.2% (102)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
44.7% (47)
+8.2%
On power play, Jenner has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Jenner is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (186).
Jenner shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Jenner
Cates
Home
51.0% (143)
46.3% (423)
Away
49.2% (124)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Jenner
Cates
P1
51.7%
46.3%
P2
40.5%
47.1%
P3
57.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
52.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
50.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |