Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Jenner wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Johansen 58.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 77.8%
Defensive zone
Jenner 55.5%
Neutral zone
Johansen 59.1%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Jenner
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Jenner
Johansen
Last 9: Jenner 6-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Jenner
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
4
2
Jenner
Johansen
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
0
Jenner
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
59.8% (625)
-5.6%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
58.2% (196)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
51.9% (27)
-2.2%
On even strength, Johansen has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Jenner is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Jenner shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Jenner
Johansen
Home
56.7% (693)
60.3% (436)
Away
52.7% (693)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Jenner
Johansen
P1
57.1%
61.3%
P2
54.1%
60.4%
P3
53.0%
56.0%
OT
61.9%
56.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:52 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 03:45 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |