Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 53.8%). Look for Jenner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 54.8%
Defensive zone
Jenner 59.1%
Neutral zone
Jenner 54.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Jenner
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Jenner
Stamkos
Last 5: Jenner 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
4
0
Jenner
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Jenner
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
55.3% (628)
-1.1%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
55.1% (216)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
40.2% (87)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Jenner is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Jenner shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Jenner
Stamkos
Home
56.7% (693)
55.5% (499)
Away
52.7% (693)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Jenner
Stamkos
P1
57.1%
50.7%
P2
54.1%
53.8%
P3
53.0%
55.9%
OT
61.9%
87.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:23 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |