Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Richardson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Richardson wins 32.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 50.5% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richardson 50.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Richardson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Richardson
Pavelski
Last 9: Richardson 5-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
5
0
Richardson
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Richardson
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Richardson
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (167)
53.4% (682)
-0.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
63.7% (168)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
48.1% (160)
-28.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Richardson is 32.8% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Richardson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Richardson
Pavelski
Home
46.2% (104)
59.0% (527)
Away
57.1% (77)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Richardson
Pavelski
P1
50.0%
50.8%
P2
50.7%
58.9%
P3
52.2%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
37.5%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
50.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |