Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 53.8%). Look for Richardson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Richardson wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 53.4% vs Pavelski 53.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.3%
Defensive zone
Richardson 71.6%
Neutral zone
Richardson 50.3%
Result
Brad Richardson favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Richardson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Richardson
Pavelski
Last 7: Richardson 5-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Richardson
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
4
0
Richardson
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richardson
1
0
Richardson
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (525)
54.4% (474)
+1.0%
Power Play
57.9% (19)
51.9% (104)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (114)
52.7% (74)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Richardson is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Richardson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Home / Away
Richardson
Pavelski
Home
56.7% (344)
54.3% (313)
Away
51.0% (314)
53.4% (339)
By Period
Richardson
Pavelski
P1
48.8%
51.0%
P2
54.1%
51.9%
P3
58.4%
58.1%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
54.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 1 | 00:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |