Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 51.7%). Look for Richardson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Richardson wins 60.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 51.8% vs Hertl 51.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 71.9%
Defensive zone
Richardson 67.8%
Neutral zone
Richardson 51.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Richardson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Richardson
Hertl
Last 6: Richardson 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Richardson
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
1
0
Richardson
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richardson
2
1
Richardson
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (177)
50.4% (367)
+3.8%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
64.6% (48)
-39.6%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
49.2% (59)
-0.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +39.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Richardson is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (111).
Richardson shoots left. Hertl is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Richardson
Hertl
Home
48.5% (101)
50.9% (220)
Away
55.8% (129)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Richardson
Hertl
P1
45.5%
52.7%
P2
56.6%
52.8%
P3
54.5%
49.7%
OT
75.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2016 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 1 | 01:48 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |