Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.2%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 15 meetings). Richardson wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 53.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Richardson leads 20-19 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.8%
Defensive zone
Richardson 73.5%
Neutral zone
Richardson 50.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Richardson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
19
(39 meetings)
20
19
Richardson
Hertl
Last 10: Richardson 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
14
Richardson
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
9
0
Richardson
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richardson
10
5
Richardson
Hertl
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (5,037)
53.8% (8,268)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.8% (125)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (1,001)
46.3% (806)
-0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Richardson is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,818).
Richardson shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Richardson
Hertl
Home
53.6% (3,164)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
53.3% (3,003)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Richardson
Hertl
P1
52.3%
53.6%
P2
54.2%
54.1%
P3
53.5%
55.3%
OT
61.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 15:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 09:33 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 1 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 12:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |