Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Howden shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Howden 49.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.1%
Defensive zone
Howden 87.0%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 50.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Tkachuk
Howden
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tkachuk
Howden
Last 8: Tkachuk 4-4 Howden
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
1
Tkachuk
Howden
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
0
3
Tkachuk
Howden
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Howden
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Howden
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
49.6% (2,905)
-0.6%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
50.5% (111)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
43.2% (315)
+1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Howden shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Howden is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,152).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Howden
Home
50.7% (1,428)
48.4% (1,608)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
49.6% (1,723)
By Period
Tkachuk
Howden
P1
49.4%
49.5%
P2
51.3%
48.0%
P3
49.3%
49.9%
OT
57.1%
39.3%
Final 5 min
46.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 01:18 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 22, 2019 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 1 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |