Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Miller 54.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.7%
Defensive zone
Miller 90.7%
Neutral zone
Miller 63.3%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Tkachuk
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
14
(30 meetings)
16
14
Tkachuk
Miller
Last 10: Tkachuk 6-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
10
1
Tkachuk
Miller
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
11
Tkachuk
Miller
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
2
Tkachuk
Miller
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
55.2% (6,648)
-6.2%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
57.9% (1,285)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
48.2% (913)
-3.2%
On power play, Miller has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Miller is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,907).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Miller
Home
50.7% (1,428)
55.9% (4,578)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
53.8% (4,268)
By Period
Tkachuk
Miller
P1
49.4%
54.7%
P2
51.3%
55.6%
P3
49.3%
54.0%
OT
57.1%
62.3%
Final 5 min
46.9%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:39 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |