Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Stenlund 52.7% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 94.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 89.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 59.4%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Last 8: Tkachuk 3-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
5
Tkachuk
Stenlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
58.2% (359)
-10.7%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
47.1% (17)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
42.0% (150)
-29.5%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +29.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Stenlund is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Home
49.9% (389)
53.6% (261)
Away
46.8% (376)
52.8% (265)
By Period
Tkachuk
Stenlund
P1
44.4%
55.4%
P2
51.8%
51.5%
P3
47.8%
52.9%
Final 5 min
44.3%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 16:10 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |