Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Point wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 46.2% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 80.4%
Defensive zone
Point 59.4%
Neutral zone
Point 69.2%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Point
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Point
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Point
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Point
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (582)
51.5% (594)
-5.6%
Power Play
45.6% (57)
51.7% (87)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
28.6% (14)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Point is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Point shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Point
Pavelski
Home
45.8% (286)
53.1% (339)
Away
45.5% (358)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Point
Pavelski
P1
45.9%
53.8%
P2
48.8%
47.8%
P3
40.6%
50.2%
OT
62.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
40.7%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
45.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |