Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaunce wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 51.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 70.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Gaunce
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Gaunce
Pavelski
Last 8: Gaunce 5-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Gaunce
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
2
0
Gaunce
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
2
0
Gaunce
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (894)
53.6% (8,791)
-1.9%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (92)
50.9% (1,138)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Gaunce has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Gaunce is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Gaunce shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Pavelski
Home
49.9% (525)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
54.5% (470)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Gaunce
Pavelski
P1
53.6%
53.5%
P2
47.4%
55.2%
P3
55.0%
53.9%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
52.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:48 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 08:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 02:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 1 | 09:04 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |