Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Gaunce wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Barzal 41.4% (+17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 73.9%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 66.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 60.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Gaunce
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Gaunce
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Gaunce
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
40.4% (456)
+17.7%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
34.2% (38)
-34.2%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
28.6% (7)
+23.4%
On power play, Barzal has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Gaunce is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Gaunce shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Barzal
Home
54.8% (93)
38.0% (242)
Away
59.1% (88)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Gaunce
Barzal
P1
62.3%
46.6%
P2
48.1%
35.4%
P3
59.5%
38.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |