Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaunce on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaunce wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Schmaltz 47.1% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 74.3%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 87.2%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 59.8%
Result
Brendan Gaunce favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Last 7: Gaunce 4-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Gaunce
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
4
1
Gaunce
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
46.5% (484)
+11.6%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
47.5% (99)
-47.5%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
46.7% (15)
+5.3%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +47.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Gaunce is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Gaunce shoots left. Schmaltz is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Home
54.8% (93)
45.3% (298)
Away
59.1% (88)
48.0% (300)
By Period
Gaunce
Schmaltz
P1
62.3%
40.4%
P2
48.1%
46.8%
P3
59.5%
53.4%
Final 5 min
51.2%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 15:48 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |