Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.6% vs Sturm 52.5% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 55.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 81.3%
18.7%
81.3%
Howden
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Howden
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
1
Howden
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (282)
54.0% (480)
-5.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
28.6% (7)
-28.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
50.0% (102)
-12.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Howden is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Howden shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Howden
Sturm
Home
52.6% (173)
54.0% (287)
Away
41.5% (118)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Howden
Sturm
P1
51.6%
53.5%
P2
37.1%
51.0%
P3
55.3%
55.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
48.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 16:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |