Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Howden wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs Sturm 53.6% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 70.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 67.7%
Neutral zone
Howden 51.7%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Howden
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Howden
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
54.6% (271)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
54.4% (90)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Howden is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Howden shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Howden
Sturm
Home
47.7% (195)
53.0% (168)
Away
52.8% (233)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Howden
Sturm
P1
51.1%
58.2%
P2
52.6%
53.2%
P3
48.8%
52.3%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |