Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 51.8%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Boyle wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boyle 51.9% vs Nelson 51.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boyle 57.4%
Defensive zone
Boyle 59.5%
Neutral zone
Boyle 61.4%
Result
Brian Boyle favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Boyle
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Boyle
Nelson
Last 6: Boyle 0-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
5
Boyle
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Boyle
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boyle
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (312)
50.7% (902)
+2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (34)
59.8% (169)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (30)
48.3% (116)
-1.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Boyle is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (251).
Boyle shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Boyle
Nelson
Home
48.5% (194)
53.6% (603)
Away
56.6% (182)
49.9% (585)
By Period
Boyle
Nelson
P1
49.1%
55.4%
P2
55.9%
47.2%
P3
51.7%
52.6%
OT
0.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boyle
40.0%▼
42.0%
52.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 08:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |