Scouting Report
Brian Boyle holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boyle 50.9% vs Nelson 48.3% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.7%
Defensive zone
Boyle 61.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Boyle
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Boyle
Nelson
Last 10: Boyle 2-8 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
7
Boyle
Nelson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
5
Boyle
Nelson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Boyle
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boyle
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (5,426)
47.9% (9,695)
+3.8%
Power Play
54.6% (597)
54.5% (1,132)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,301)
43.8% (783)
+2.4%
On even strength, Boyle has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Boyle is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Boyle shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Boyle
Nelson
Home
52.2% (3,521)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
49.8% (3,828)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Boyle
Nelson
P1
51.3%
48.7%
P2
51.1%
48.5%
P3
50.4%
47.7%
OT
55.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boyle
40.0%▼
42.0%
51.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 08:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Brian Boyle |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Brian Boyle |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 2 | 02:10 | Offensive | Brian Boyle |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 11:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Brian Boyle |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 3 | 05:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |