Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Boeser wins 41.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 42.0% vs Tavares 54.4% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 62.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 52.7%
Neutral zone
Boeser 52.0%
Result
Brock Boeser favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Boeser
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Boeser
Tavares
Last 9: Boeser 4-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
2
0
Boeser
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Boeser
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Boeser
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (436)
54.0% (15,885)
-13.9%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
56.5% (4,221)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
50.7% (612)
-0.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Boeser is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Boeser shoots right. Tavares is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (7,429).
Home / Away
Boeser
Tavares
Home
41.6% (238)
56.1% (10,389)
Away
39.2% (245)
52.7% (10,358)
By Period
Boeser
Tavares
P1
37.6%
55.1%
P2
42.4%
54.1%
P3
40.7%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
56.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.4%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 13:20 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 11:22 | Neutral | Brock Boeser |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2019 | OT | 02:32 | Defensive | Brock Boeser |