Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Boeser wins 35.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 45.9% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 60.1%
Defensive zone
Boeser 58.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 55.1%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Boeser
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Boeser
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Boeser
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
40.0% (105)
45.9% (665)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
46.8% (111)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
50.0% (24)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Boeser has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Boeser is 35.5% vs right-shot opponents (31).
Boeser shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Boeser
Schmaltz
Home
40.0% (60)
44.7% (409)
Away
44.8% (58)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Boeser
Schmaltz
P1
40.5%
40.3%
P2
50.0%
47.6%
P3
32.3%
51.0%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
34.6%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
46.0%▲
39.0%
42.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |