Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Boeser wins 36.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 42.0% vs Schmaltz 42.4% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 58.3%
Defensive zone
Boeser 52.9%
Neutral zone
Boeser 51.9%
Result
Brock Boeser favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Boeser
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Boeser
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Boeser
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (436)
41.1% (3,218)
-1.0%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
47.3% (637)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
47.2% (125)
+2.8%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Boeser is 36.5% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Boeser shoots right. Schmaltz is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Boeser
Schmaltz
Home
41.6% (238)
42.7% (1,978)
Away
39.2% (245)
41.8% (2,002)
By Period
Boeser
Schmaltz
P1
37.6%
41.1%
P2
42.4%
42.6%
P3
40.7%
43.0%
OT
50.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
42.5%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.4%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |