Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Boeser wins 35.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 41.6% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 58.0%
Defensive zone
Boeser 50.6%
Neutral zone
Boeser 51.6%
Result
Brock Boeser favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Boeser
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Boeser
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Boeser
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
39.6% (442)
41.2% (3,399)
-1.6%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
47.1% (649)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
47.8% (134)
+2.2%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Boeser is 35.9% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Boeser shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,167).
Home / Away
Boeser
Schmaltz
Home
40.9% (242)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
38.9% (247)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Boeser
Schmaltz
P1
37.2%
41.1%
P2
42.0%
42.9%
P3
40.0%
43.0%
OT
50.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
40.9%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
46.0%▲
39.0%
39.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |