Aleksander Barkov vs Brock Nelson
2021-22 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Nelson 49.4% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Barkov
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Barkov
Nelson
Last 8: Barkov 2-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
3
Barkov
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Barkov
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
49.9% (840)
+7.1%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
52.8% (89)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
28.6% (35)
+19.7%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Barkov is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Barkov shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Barkov
Nelson
Home
59.2% (557)
49.8% (458)
Away
55.1% (695)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Barkov
Nelson
P1
56.7%
50.1%
P2
54.8%
45.4%
P3
59.7%
52.7%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.4%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 07:35 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |