Aleksander Barkov vs Brock Nelson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Nelson 51.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Barkov
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Barkov
Nelson
Last 5: Barkov 1-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Barkov
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Barkov
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Barkov
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
51.3% (1,002)
+4.2%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
58.7% (126)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
51.9% (81)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Barkov
Nelson
Home
56.4% (550)
52.5% (590)
Away
56.7% (476)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Barkov
Nelson
P1
56.5%
50.5%
P2
55.5%
54.4%
P3
57.9%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
58.7%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |