Scouting Report
Cedric Paquette holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paquette on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.4% vs Paquette 49.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.1%
Defensive zone
Paquette 58.4%
Neutral zone
Paquette 53.9%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Nelson
Paquette
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Paquette
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Paquette
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Paquette
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paquette
2
3
Nelson
Paquette
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Paquette
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (347)
53.0% (215)
-3.4%
Power Play
20.8% (24)
54.5% (11)
-33.7%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
36.8% (57)
+16.1%
On power play, Paquette has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paquette shoots left. Nelson is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Nelson shoots left. Paquette is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Home / Away
Nelson
Paquette
Home
52.9% (210)
52.1% (167)
Away
42.1% (178)
46.6% (116)
By Period
Nelson
Paquette
P1
43.9%
48.8%
P2
48.1%
51.0%
P3
53.1%
50.0%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
42.7%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2016 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 3 | 07:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 2 | 14:26 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 1 | 19:22 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |