Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +19.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Paquette 39.7% (+19.6%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.3%
Defensive zone
Paquette 54.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Nelson
Paquette
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Paquette
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
30.1% (73)
+19.8%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
100.0% (1)
-47.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
26.7% (30)
+1.9%
On power play, Paquette has a +47.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paquette shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Paquette is 36.5% vs left-shot opponents (63).
Home / Away
Nelson
Paquette
Home
49.8% (458)
28.1% (32)
Away
49.0% (506)
30.6% (72)
By Period
Nelson
Paquette
P1
50.1%
36.4%
P2
45.4%
27.9%
P3
52.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
30.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
29.8%