Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gauthier on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Gauthier 49.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gauthier 71.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Nelson
Gauthier
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Gauthier
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Gauthier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gauthier
0
3
Nelson
Gauthier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Gauthier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gauthier
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
45.5% (110)
+5.2%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
53.2% (79)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
66.7% (3)
-23.3%
On penalty kill, Gauthier has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gauthier shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Gauthier is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gauthier
Home
52.3% (621)
53.1% (98)
Away
48.9% (618)
44.7% (94)
By Period
Nelson
Gauthier
P1
48.4%
43.4%
P2
53.5%
54.2%
P3
50.3%
50.0%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Gauthier
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Cutter Gauthier |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Cutter Gauthier |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Cutter Gauthier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |