Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Grant 52.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Grant leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 79.0%
Defensive zone
Grant 56.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Nelson
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
16
(24 meetings)
8
16
Nelson
Grant
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Nelson
Grant
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
2
7
Nelson
Grant
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
1
4
Nelson
Grant
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.7% (2,864)
-5.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
61.7% (175)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.0% (922)
-2.2%
On power play, Grant has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Grant is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,612).
Home / Away
Nelson
Grant
Home
50.0% (5,845)
54.3% (1,956)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
50.2% (2,005)
By Period
Nelson
Grant
P1
48.7%
51.1%
P2
48.5%
51.5%
P3
47.7%
54.3%
OT
45.6%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:46 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 19:31 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 1 | 17:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Derek Grant |