Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Grant 54.3% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.5%
Defensive zone
Grant 55.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Nelson
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Grant
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Grant
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
0
2
Nelson
Grant
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
0
1
Nelson
Grant
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
56.5% (308)
-9.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
65.3% (49)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
48.5% (136)
-23.5%
On penalty kill, Grant has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Grant is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
Home / Away
Nelson
Grant
Home
48.9% (521)
60.3% (257)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.6% (236)
By Period
Nelson
Grant
P1
45.9%
54.7%
P2
48.0%
54.0%
P3
48.0%
57.1%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:46 | Defensive | Derek Grant |