Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Grant 52.2% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.8%
Defensive zone
Grant 56.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Grant
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Grant
0
1
Nelson
Grant
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
1
3
Nelson
Grant
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Grant
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
54.7% (397)
-7.3%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
62.5% (8)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
44.5% (110)
-1.6%
On power play, Grant has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Nelson shoots left. Grant is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Nelson
Grant
Home
51.0% (641)
53.6% (222)
Away
44.1% (605)
51.9% (293)
By Period
Nelson
Grant
P1
48.2%
48.5%
P2
48.1%
54.3%
P3
46.9%
55.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 19:31 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 1 | 17:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |