Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 27 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stepan 46.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 39-25 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 63.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
39
(64 meetings)
25
39
Nelson
Stepan
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
11
16
Nelson
Stepan
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
8
13
Nelson
Stepan
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
6
10
Nelson
Stepan
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
46.5% (10,204)
+1.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
48.8% (1,593)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.2% (1,368)
-0.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
48.7%
47.5%
P2
48.5%
45.6%
P3
47.7%
46.8%
OT
45.6%
40.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 03:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2020 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2020 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2020 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2020 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2020 | 1 | 14:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 10:51 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 24, 2019 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2019 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |