Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Stepan 54.8% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Nelson
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
4
Nelson
Stepan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
54.5% (374)
-4.6%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
0.0% (2)
+52.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
64.7% (68)
-36.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
49.8% (458)
54.5% (222)
Away
49.0% (506)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
50.1%
57.5%
P2
45.4%
54.7%
P3
52.7%
55.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |