Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Stepan 45.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 64.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Stepan
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
43.8% (1,141)
-1.7%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
52.2% (253)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
43.2% (118)
-4.7%
On power play, Stepan has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,028).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
43.8% (224)
47.8% (828)
Away
41.0% (227)
42.0% (684)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
48.1%
49.5%
P2
38.4%
42.0%
P3
39.2%
44.3%
OT
75.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 1 | 04:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |