Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.3% vs 44.1%). Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Stepan 44.5% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 69.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Nelson
Stepan
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
5
Nelson
Stepan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Stepan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
43.5% (942)
+0.4%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
48.1% (162)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
43.0% (128)
-1.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
42.9% (406)
45.6% (629)
Away
45.8% (393)
42.5% (603)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
44.1%
44.7%
P2
47.2%
43.7%
P3
42.2%
43.9%
OT
30.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2015 | 3 | 14:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 3 | 01:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 2 | 07:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |