Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.4% vs Stepan 47.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 60.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 62.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 61.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Nelson
Stepan
Last 9: Nelson 3-6 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
3
Nelson
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Stepan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (347)
46.6% (889)
+3.0%
Power Play
20.8% (24)
46.9% (113)
-26.1%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
47.5% (101)
+5.4%
On power play, Stepan has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (785).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
52.9% (210)
47.7% (555)
Away
42.1% (178)
45.6% (548)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
43.9%
46.4%
P2
48.1%
45.7%
P3
53.1%
48.5%
OT
40.0%
35.3%
Final 5 min
42.7%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 1 | 16:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2016 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2016 | 3 | 07:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2016 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2016 | 2 | 05:42 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2016 | 2 | 05:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2016 | 1 | 01:56 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |