Scouting Report
Derick Brassard holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Brassard on neutral-zone draws (54% H2H, 13 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Brassard shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Brassard 48.2% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Brassard 74.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.7%
Neutral zone
Brassard 61.4%
Result
Derick Brassard favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Nelson
Brassard
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Nelson
Brassard
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Brassard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Brassard
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Brassard
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brassard
6
7
Nelson
Brassard
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Brassard
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
46.2% (798)
-4.1%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
56.1% (173)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
50.0% (6)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Brassard has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brassard shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Brassard is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Nelson
Brassard
Home
43.8% (224)
47.5% (459)
Away
41.0% (227)
48.5% (518)
By Period
Nelson
Brassard
P1
48.1%
48.0%
P2
38.4%
50.1%
P3
39.2%
44.9%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
41.4%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2014 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 31, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 31, 2014 | 1 | 03:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2014 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 31, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 05:24 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 01:37 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 1 | 08:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |