Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.1%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Brassard 49.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Nelson
Brassard
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Nelson
Brassard
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Brassard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Brassard
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Brassard
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Brassard
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Brassard
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
49.0% (936)
-1.0%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
48.1% (104)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
66.7% (9)
-26.2%
On penalty kill, Brassard has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brassard shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Brassard is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (730).
Home / Away
Nelson
Brassard
Home
51.1% (399)
50.5% (543)
Away
45.6% (406)
47.7% (507)
By Period
Nelson
Brassard
P1
51.8%
48.8%
P2
47.5%
49.0%
P3
46.5%
49.6%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2018 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 20, 2018 | 2 | 02:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2018 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 1 | 12:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |