Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gambrell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Gambrell 46.3% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 91.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 74.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Nelson
Gambrell
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Nelson
Gambrell
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Gambrell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
0
Nelson
Gambrell
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gambrell
0
1
Nelson
Gambrell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gambrell
1
2
Nelson
Gambrell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gambrell
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
47.4% (1,627)
+0.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
36.4% (33)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
40.4% (314)
+3.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gambrell shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Gambrell is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,434).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gambrell
Home
50.0% (5,845)
44.3% (994)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.1% (980)
By Period
Nelson
Gambrell
P1
48.7%
44.3%
P2
48.5%
49.8%
P3
47.7%
44.5%
OT
45.6%
12.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Gambrell
50.0%▲
48.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 05:41 | Defensive | Dylan Gambrell |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Dylan Gambrell |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:42 | Neutral | Dylan Gambrell |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 12:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 14:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 05:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |